Journal of Human Sport and Exercise

Prediction of race pace in long distance running from blood lactate concentration around race pace

Iker Muñoz Perez, Diego Moreno Perez, Claudia Cardona Gonzalez, Jonathan Esteve-Lanao

Abstract

The aim of this study was to develop an equation for predicting the performance in 10 kilometers road race (10k), Half Marathon (21k) and Marathon (42k), using the blood lactate concentration (bLA) close to race pace. 64 runners of different levels completed the study (10k (n = 19): 32min-56min, 21k (n=24): 1h04min-1h57min; 42k (n=21): 2h38min-4h02min). A few days before their main competition, subjects conducted a test in track at constant pace over 2400m. They ran at two different speeds that were slightly lower (V1) or similar / faster than the competition expected pace (V2). bLa samples were taken during and after every pace. The results did not show any mathematical model to estimate the 10k mark. In the 21k, it was found a model that included V2 and bLA2: V21k (km / h) = (V2*1.085) + (-0.282*bLA2) -0.131, r2 = 0.97, ETE = 0.414 km / h. In the 42k, it was found a model that included V1 and BLA1: V42k (km/h) = (V1*1.085) + (-0.429*BLA1) -0.170, r2 = 0.81, ETE = 0.626 km/h. Two equations were capable of predicting performance, for 21k and 42k through bla concentration at a pace close to the expected for the competition.


Keywords

Track lactate; Race pace; Performance prediction

References

BALE P, BRADBURY D, COLLEY E. Anthropometric and training variables related to 10km running performance. Br J Sports Med. 1986; 20(4):170-173. https://doi.org/10.1136/bjsm.20.4.170

BALE P, ROWELL S, COLLEY E. Anthropometric and training characteristics of female marathon runners as determinants of distance running performance. J Sports Sci. 1985; 3(2):115-126. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640418508729741

BENEKE R, HÜTLER M, LEITHÄUSER RM. Maximal lactate-steady-state independent of performance. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2000; 32(6):1135-1139. https://doi.org/10.1097/00005768-200006000-00016

BENEKE R. Anaerobic threshold, individual anaerobic threshold, and maximal lactate steady state in rowing. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 1995; 27(6):863-867. https://doi.org/10.1249/00005768-199506000-00010

BENEKE R. Methodological aspects of maximal lactate steady state-implications for performance testing. Eur J ApplPhysiol. 2003; 89(1):95-99. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00421-002-0783-1

Berg K, LATIN RW, COFFEY C. Relationship of somatotype and physical characteristics to distance running performance in middle age runners. J Sports Med Phys Fitness. 1998; 38(3):253-257.

BILLAT V, SIRVENT P, LEPRETRE P, KORALSZTEIN JP. Training effect on performance, substrate balance and blood lactate concentration at maximal lactate steady state in master endurance-runners. Pflugers Arch. 2004; 447(6):875-883. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00424-003-1215-8

COQUART JBJ, BOSQUET L. Precision in the prediction of middle distance-running performances using either a nomogram or the modeling of the distance-time relationship. J Strength Cond Res. 2010; 24(11):2920-2926. https://doi.org/10.1519/JSC.0b013e3181c69278

DAVIES CT, THOMPSON MW. Aerobic performance of female marathon and male ultramarathon athletes. Eur J Appl Physiol Occup Physiol. 1979; 41(4):233-245. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00429740

Deason J, POWERS SK, LAWLER J, AYERS D, STUART MK. Physiological correlates to 800 meter running performance. J Sports Med Phys Fitness. 1991; 31(4):499-504.

FARRELL PA, WILMORE JH, COYLE EF, BILLING JE, COSTILL DL. Plasma lactate accumulation and distance running performance. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 1993; 25(10):1091-1097. https://doi.org/10.1249/00005768-199310000-00002

FAY L, LONDEREE BR, LAFONTAINE TP, VOLEK MR. Physiological parameters related to distance running performance in female athletes. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 1989; 21(3):319-324. https://doi.org/10.1249/00005768-198906000-00016

FÖHRENBACH R, MADER A, HOLLMANN W. Determination of endurance capacity and prediction of exercise intensities for training and competition in marathon runners. Int J Sports Med. 1987; 8(1):11-18. https://doi.org/10.1055/s-2008-1025633

GRANT S, CRAIG I, WILSON J, AITCHISON T. The relationship between 3 km running performance and selected physiological variables. J Sports Sci. 1997; 15(4):403-410. https://doi.org/10.1080/026404197367191

HAGAN RD, SMITH MG, GETTMAN LR. Marathon performance in relation to maximal aerobic power and training indices. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 1981; 13(3):185-189. https://doi.org/10.1249/00005768-198103000-00007

Maffulli N, Capasso G, Lancia A. Anaerobic threshold and performance in middle and long distance running. J Sports Med Phys Fitness. 1991; 31(3):332-338.

MORGAN DW, BALDINI FD, MARTIN PE, KOHRT WM. Ten kilometer performance and predicted velocity at VO2max among well-trained male runners. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 1989; 21(1):78-83. https://doi.org/10.1249/00005768-198902000-00014

NICHOLSON RM, SLEIVERT GG. Indices of lactate threshold and their relationship with 10-km running velocity. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2001; 33(2):339-342.

NOAKES TD, MYBURGH KH, SCHALL R. Peak treadmill running velocity during the VO2 max test predicts running performance. J Sports Sci. 1990; 8(1):35-45. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640419008732129

PETIT MA, NELSON CM, RHODES EC. Comparison of a mathematical model to predict 10-km performance from the conconi test and ventilatory threshold measurements. Can J ApplPhysiol. 1997; 22(6):562-572. https://doi.org/10.1139/h97-036

ROECKER K, SCHOTTE O, NIESS AM, HORSTMANN T, DICKHUTH HH. Predicting competition performance in long-distance running by means of a treadmill test. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 1998; 30(10):1552-1557. https://doi.org/10.1097/00005768-199810000-00014

SLATTERY KM, WALLACE LK, MURPHY AJ, COUTTS AJ. Physiological determinants of three-kilometer running performance in experienced triathletes. J Strength Cond Res. 2006; 20(1):47-52.

Slovic P. Empirical study of training and performance in the marathon. Res Q. 1977; 48(4):769-777.

SPARLING PB, WILSON GE, PATE RR. Project overview and description of performance, training, and physical characteristics in elite women distance runners. Int J Sports Med. 1987; 8(2):73-76. https://doi.org/10.1055/s-2008-1025708

STRATTON E, O'BRIEN BJ, HARVEY J, BLITVICH J, MCNICOL AJ, JANISSEN D ET AL. Treadmill velocity best predicts 5000-m run performance. Int J Sports Med. 2009; 30(1):40-45. https://doi.org/10.1055/s-2008-1038761

WEYAND PG, CURETON KJ, CONLEY DS, SLONIGER MA, LIU YL. Peak oxygen deficit predicts sprint and middle-distance track performance. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 1994; 26(9):1174-1180. https://doi.org/10.1249/00005768-199409000-00016




DOI: https://doi.org/10.4100/jhse.2012.74.04





Copyright (c) 2012 Journal of Human Sport and Exercise

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.