The effects of match-playing aspects and situational variables on achieving score-box possessions in euro 2012 football championship

Francesco Sgrò, Fabio Aiello, Alessandro Casella, Mario Lipoma

Abstract

The aim of this study was to examine the independent and interactive effects of several match-playing aspects and situational variables on the probability of achieving score-box possessions in the 2012 European Championship. The non-clinical magnitude-based inferences methods was used to interpret the true effect of the performance indicators on the response variable. The logistic regression analysis in univariate perspective showed that the probability of achieving score-box possessions was greater in the second half than in the first (OR: 1.23, P<0.05, very likely positive effect), but it was lower when a team performed a direct attack rather than a possession play (OR: 0.49, P< 0.001, most likely negative effect), when the possession started in the right path of the field than in the left (OR: 0.69, P < 0.01, most likely negative effect), and when a team played against highest ranked team (from very to most likely negative effect). In multivariate perspective, the negative effect of the direct attack to the probability of achieving score-box possessions was confirmed, and an interactive effect showed that this outcome was greater in the knockout phase of the tournament than in the relative group-stage (OR: 0.62, P< 0.05, very likely negative effect). 


Keywords

Team performance analysis; Multidimensional football data; Logistic Regression Analysis; One-Off tournament

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.14198/jhse.2017.121.05