An examination of expected goals and shot efficiency in soccer
Keywords:BUNDESLIGA, GOAL SCORING, PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS, PLAYERS, PREMIER LEAGUE, FOOTBALL
AbstractThe aim of this study was to examine goal scoring in European football leagues and specifically which factors are associated with predicting Expected Goals (xG). This concept helps us to evaluate player, specifically strikers, in the number of goals they score season upon season. Therefore, this study examined the shots from the Premier League and Bundesliga games (380 & 306) from the 2012-2013 season. All of the shots were grouped into sections on the field of play and a theoretical goal value was applied to each area. The factors analysed were: distance of the shot taken from goal and the angle of the shot in relation to the goal. In calculating xG, it is suggested that the distance and angle of the shots matter. A combination of the two factors calculated xG better than each variable alone. Furthermore, this examination of xG has been able to identify mid-table teams scoring and conceding goals relatively accurately. Top league teams and lower league teams over and under achieved respectively. Managers and Coaches may find this method useful in identifying players who consistently score close to their expected total or even out-perform it.
American Soccer Analysis. (2014). Expected Goals 2 Explanation. American Soccer Analysis. Retrieved from http://www.americansocceranalysis.com/expected-goals-2-explanation/
Altman, D. (2015a). Pitfalls of measuring shooting and saving skill. North Yard Analytics Blog. Retrieved from http://www.northyardanalytics.com/blog/2015/08/22/pitfalls-of-measuring-shooting-and-saving-skill/
Altman, D. (2015b). Beyond Shots: OptaPro Forum 2015. North Yard Analytics Blog. Retrieved from http://www.northyardanalytics.com/blog/2015/02/05/beyond-shots-optapro-forum-2015/
Armatas, V., Yiannakos, A., Papadopoulou, S., & Skoufas, D. (2009). Evaluation of goals scored in top ranking soccer matches: Greek “Superleague” 2006-07. Serbian Journal of Sports Sciences, 3(1), 39-43.
Armatas, V. & Yiannaskos, A. (2010). Analysis and evaluation of goals scored in 2006 World Cup. Journal of Sport and Health Research, 2(2), 119-128.
Bar-Eli, M. & Azar, O. (2009). Penalty kicks in soccer: an emipirical analysis of shooting strategies and goalkeepers’ preferences. Soccer & Society, 10(2), 183-191.
Bekris, E.,Mylonis, E., Sarakinos, A., Gissis, I., Gioldasis, A. & Sotiropoulos, A. (2013). Offense and defense statistical indicators that determine the Greek Superleague teams and placement on the table 2011-2012. Journal of Physical Education and Sport, 13(3), 338-347.
Bertin, M. (2015a). Why Soccer’s Most Popular Advanced Stat Kind Of Sucks. Regression. Retrieved from http://regression.deadspin.com/why-soccers-most-popular-advanced-stat-kind-of-sucks-1685563075
Bertin, M. (2015b). EXPG Comment Reply. Michael Bertin Blog. Retrieved from http://www.michaelbertin.com/expg-comment-reply/
Bertin, M. (2015c). The third to last thing I’ll ever write about expected goals. Michael Bertin Blog. Retrieved from http://www.michaelbertin.com/the-third-to-last-thing-ill-ever-write-about-expected-goals/
Boscá, J., Liern, V., Martinez, A. & Sala, R. (2009). Increasing offensive or defensive efficiency? An analysis of Italian and Spanish football. Omega, 37, 63-78.
Caley, M. (2013a). Shot Matrix 1: Shot Location and Expected Goals. Cartilage Free Captain. Retrieved from http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2013/11/13/5098186/shot-matrix-i-shot-location-and-expected-goals
Caley, M. (2013b). Shot Matrix III: The Incredible Through-Ball. Cartilage Free Captain. Retrieved from http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2013/11/16/5111212/shot-matrix-iii-the-incredible-through-ball
Caley, M. (2013c). Shot Matrix II: Pass Type and Shot Type, or, Heading is super hard. Cartilage Free Captain. Retrieved from http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2013/11/15/5107438/shot-matrix-ii-pass-type-and-shot-type-or-heading-is-super-hard
Caley, M. (2014a). Premier League projections, from the winners to the relegated clubs. Cartilage Free Captain. Retrieved from http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/9/11/6131661/premier-league-projections-2014#methodology
Caley, M. (2014b). English Premier League Advanced Statistics. Cartilage Free Captain. Retrieved from http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/2/12/5404348/English-premier-league-shot-statistics
Caley, M. (2014c). Pre-shot dribbling in soccer is extremely valuable on scoring chances. Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/08/27/pre-shot-dribbling-in-soccer-is-extremely-valuable-on-scoring-chances/
Caley, M. (2014d). Here are the Premier League teams that have made the most of their payrolls. Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/09/05/here-are-the-premier-league-teams-that-have-made-the-most-of-their-payrolls/
Caley, M. (2014e). Shot Matrix International 1: Shot Distribution in European Football. Cartilage Free Captain. Retrieved from https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/2/4/5375492/shot-matrix-internation-i-shot-distribution-in-european-football
Caley, M. (2014f). Shot Matrix International II: Shot Type and Pass Type. Cartilage Free Captain. Retrieved from http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/2/5/5379690/shot-matrix-international-ii-shot-type-and-pass-type
Caley, M. (2015). Let’s talk about expected goals. Cartilage Free Captain. Retrieved from http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2015/4/10/8381071/football-statistics-expected-goals-michael-caley-deadspin
Carey, D., Smith, G., Smith, D., Shepard, J., Skriver, J., Ord, L. & Rutland, A. (2001). Footedness in world soccer: an analysis of France ‘98’. Journal of Sports Sciences, 19(11), 855-864.
Carmichael, F., Thomas, D. & Ward, R. (2001). Production and Efficiency in Association Football. Journal of Sports Economics, 2(3), 228-243.
Castellano, J., Casamichana, D. & Lago, C. (2012). The use of match statistics that discriminate between successful and unsuccessful soccer teams. Journal of Human Kinetics, 31, 139-147.
De Hoog, M. (2015). How data, not people, call the shots in Denmark. The Correspondent. Retrieved 24 September 2015, from https://decorrespondent.nl/2607/How-data-not-humans-run-this-Danish-football-club/517995289284-77644562
Dörge, H., Andersen, T., Sørensen, H. & Simonsen, E. (2002). Biomechanical differences in soccer kicking with the preferred and the non-preferred leg. Journal of Sports Sciences, 20(4), 293-299.
Eastwood, M. (2014a). Expected Goals: The Y Axis. Pena.lt/y Blog. Retrieved from http://www.pena.lt/y/2014/04/16/expected-goals-the-y-xis/
Eastwood, M. (2014b). Expected Goals for all. Pena.lt/y Blog. Retrieved from http://www.pena.lt/y/2014/02/12/expected-goals-for-all/
Eastwood, M. (2014c). Expected Goals: Foot Shots versus Headers. Pena.lt/y Blog. Retrieved from http://www.pena.lt/y/2014/08/28/expected-goals-foot-shots-versus-headers/
Finnoff, J. T., Newcomer, K. & Laskowski, E. R. (2002). A valid and reliable method for measuring the kicking accuracy of soccer players. Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport, 5(4), 348-353.
Gardiner, B. (2015). Were Swansea Lucky to Finish 8th?. StatsBomb. Retrieved from http://statsbomb.com/2015/06/were-swansea-lucky-to-finish-8th/
Harkins, J. (2015). Assessing defensive impact. OptaPro Blog. Retrieved from http://www.optasportspro.com/about/optapro-blog/posts/2015/blog-assessing-defensive-impact/
Jankovic, A., Leontijevic, B., Pasic, M. & Jelusic, V. (2011). Influence of certain tactical attacking patterns on the result achieved by teams participants of the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa. Physical Culture, 65(1), 34-45.
Lago-Peñas, C., Lago-Ballesteros, J., Dellal, A. & Gómez, M. (2010). Game-related statistics that discriminated winning, drawing and losing teams from the Spanish soccer league. Journal of Sports Science & Medicine, 9, 288-293.
Lago-Peñas, C., Lago-Ballestero, J. & Rey, E. (2011). Differences in performance indicators between winning and losing teams in the UEFA Champions League. Journal of Human Kinetics, 27, 135-146.
Lees, A., Asai, T., Andersen, T., Nunome, H. & Sterzing, T. (2010). The biomechanics of kicking in soccer: A review. Journal of Sports Sciences, 28(8), 805-817.
Liu, H., Gomez, M., Lago-Peñas, C. & Sampaio, J. (2015). Match statistics related to winning in the group stage of the 2014 Brazil FIFA World Cup. Journal of Sports Sciences, 33(12), 1205-1213.
Macdonald, B. (2012). An Expected Goals Model for Evaluating NHL Teams and Players. In MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (pp. 1-8). New York: United States Military Academy. Retrieved from http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/NHL-Expected-Goals-Brian-Macdonald.pdf
Mara, J., Wheeler, K. & Lyons, K. (2012). Attacking Strategies that lead to goal scoring opportunities in high level women’s football. International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching, 7(3), 565-577.
Manolopoulos, E., Papadopoulos, C. & Kellis, E. (2006). Effects of combined strength and kick coordination training on soccer kick biomechanics in amateur players. Scandanavian Journal of Medicine in Science of Sports, 16, 102-110.
Parton, S. (2013). 2013-2014 Premiership Pitch Sizes. Openplay. Retrieved from http://www.openplay.co.uk/blog/premiership-football-pitch-sizes-2013-2014/
Perin, C., Vuillemot, R. & Fekete, J. (2013). Soccer Stories: A Kick-off for Visual Soccer Analysis. Visulisation and Computer Graphics, IEEE Transactions, 19(2), 2506-2513.
Pleuler, D. (2014). On the topic of Expected Goals and the repeatability of finishing skill. OptaPro Blog. Retrieved from http://www.optasportspro.com/about/optapro-blog/posts/2014/on-the-topic-of-expected-goals-and-the-repeatibility-of-finishing-skill.aspx
Potthast, W. & Brüggemann, G. (2010). Motion-differences in goal kicking on natural and artificial soccer turf systems. Footwear Science 2.
Pratas, J., Volossovitch, A. & Ferreira, A. (2012). The effect of situational variables on teams’ performance in offensive sequences ending in a shot on goal. A Case Study. The Open Sports Sciences Journal, 5, 193-199.
Radman, I., Wessner, B., Ruzic, l., Markovic, G., Hackl, M., & Bachl, N. (2014). Influences of graded physiological exertion on shooting ability in soccer. In World Congress of Performance Analysis of Sport X. Opatija: Faculty of Kinesiology, University of Zagreb, Croatia.
Riley, P. (2014). A shooting Model – An Exp(G)lanation and Application. Differentgame. Retrieved from https://differentgame.wordpress.com/2014/05/19/a-shooting-model-an-expglanation-and-application/
Swarc, A. (2004). Effectiveness of Brazilian and German Teams and the teams defeated by them during the 17th FIFA World Cup. Kinesiology, 36(1), 83-89.
Swarc, A. (2007). Efficacy of Successful and Unsuccessful Soccer Teams Taking Part in Finals of Champions League, MEDSPORTPRESS, 13(2), 221-225.
Taylor, M. (2014). How to calculate expected goal model. Pinnacle Sports. Retrieved 13 October 2015, from http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/soccer/how-to-calculate-goal-models
TheChels. (2010). Expected Goal Statistics. TheChels.co.uk. Retrieved 18 November 2015, from https://www.thechels.co.uk/expected-goals/
Trainor, C. & Chappas, C. (2013). Goal Expectation and Efficiency. StatsBomb. Retrieved from http://statsbomb.com/2013/08/08/goal-expectation-and-efficiency/
Ward, D. (2015). How To Measure Defense? Statsbomb. Retrieved from http://statsbomb.com/2015/11/how-to-measure-defense/
11tegen11. (2014). Expected Goals 2.0 – Some light in the black box. 11tegen11. Retrieved from http://11tegen11.net/2014/08/07/expected -goals-2-0-some-light-in-the-black-box/
11tegen11. (2015). The best predictor for future performance is Expected Goals, 11tegen11. Retrieved from http:/11tegen11.net/2015/01/05/the-best-predictor-for-future-performance-is-expected-goals/
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2020 Journal of Human Sport and Exercise
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Each author warrants that his or her submission to the Work is original and that he or she has full power to enter into this agreement. Neither this Work nor a similar work has been published elsewhere in any language nor shall be submitted for publication elsewhere while under consideration by JHSE. Each author also accepts that the JHSE will not be held legally responsible for any claims of compensation.
Authors wishing to include figures or text passages that have already been published elsewhere are required to obtain permission from the copyright holder(s) and to include evidence that such permission has been granted when submitting their papers. Any material received without such evidence will be assumed to originate from the authors.
Please include at the end of the acknowledgements a declaration that the experiments comply with the current laws of the country in which they were performed. The editors reserve the right to reject manuscripts that do not comply with the abovementioned requirements. The author(s) will be held responsible for false statements or failure to fulfill the above-mentioned requirements.
This title is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).
You are free to share, copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format. The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms under the following terms:
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
NoDerivatives — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you may not distribute the modified material.
No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
You do not have to comply with the license for elements of the material in the public domain or where your use is permitted by an applicable exception or limitation.
No warranties are given. The license may not give you all of the permissions necessary for your intended use. For example, other rights such as publicity, privacy, or moral rights may limit how you use the material.
Transfer of Copyright
In consideration of JHSE’s publication of the Work, the authors hereby transfer, assign, and otherwise convey all copyright ownership worldwide, in all languages, and in all forms of media now or hereafter known, including electronic media such as CD-ROM, Internet, and Intranet, to JHSE. If JHSE should decide for any reason not to publish an author’s submission to the Work, JHSE shall give prompt notice of its decision to the corresponding author, this agreement shall terminate, and neither the author nor JHSE shall be under any further liability or obligation.
Each author certifies that he or she has no commercial associations (e.g., consultancies, stock ownership, equity interest, patent/licensing arrangements, etc.) that might pose a conflict of interest in connection with the submitted article, except as disclosed on a separate attachment. All funding sources supporting the Work and all institutional or corporate affiliations of the authors are acknowledged in a footnote in the Work.
Each author certifies that his or her institution has approved the protocol for any investigation involving humans or animals and that all experimentation was conducted in conformity with ethical and humane principles of research.
Biomedical journals typically require authors and reviewers to declare if they have any competing interests with regard to their research.
JHSE require authors to agree to Copyright Notice as part of the submission process.