Journal of Human Sport and Exercise

A simple relationship for predicting marathon performance from training: Is it generally applicable?

Giovanni Tanda



The aim of this work is to provide further validation of a predictive formula for marathon time performance (MPT) published in 2011. The predictive formula has been correlated with new sample points derived mainly from publicly available data on Strava. The new marathon data points confirm the predictive correlation between mean weekly distance run, mean training pace and marathon performance. The RMSE of 5.4 min for MPT in the 2:47−3:36 (hour:min) range is statistically significant. The extension of the correlation validity for MPT below 2:47 (hour:min) is possible but results are affected by a larger RMSE (9.5 min for MPT). Therefore, the predictive formula for the MPT can be used by coaches and athletes to adjust training programmes and to adopt optimal pace strategies during the marathon race.


Marathon; Training; Long-distance running; Performance prediction


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